Miles down a lot, deaths down by not so much. During the recent virus crisis, miles driven dropped by 5.4%, so you’d expect crashes causing deaths would drop by about the same amount. Wrong. Sadly, fatal crashes only dropped by about 1%. So, that means the total miles driven dropped greater than 5 times more than the number of deaths. The data is deep and confusing, so if you are a numbers person, dive in and you’ll find the details to be interesting below.
For the rest of us, let me summarize it this way: slow down, pay attention, and always look twice before turning or changing lanes. If everyone always followed those simple rules, everywhere, every day, the miles driven can increase, and we’d decrease the number of deaths. Miles driven will go back up and continue to rise, that is a certainty. The part we can each control is our safe driving habits, so do your part and follow these rules and let’s hope you help save lives.
A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first quarter of 2020 shows that an estimated 7,780 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decrease of about 1 percent as compared to 7,850 fatalities that were projected to have occurred in the first quarter of 2019, as shown in Table 1. Preliminary data reported by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) shows that vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the first 3 months of 2020 decreased by about 40.1 billion miles, or about a 5.4 percent decrease. Also shown in Table 1 are the fatality rates per 100 million VMT, by quarter. The fatality rate for the first quarter of 2020 increased to 1.10 fatalities per 100 million VMT, up from the projected rate of 1.05 fatalities per 100 million VMT in the first quarter of 2019. The actual counts for 2019 and 2020 and the ensuing percentage change from 2019 to 2020 will be further revised as the annual reporting FARS files for 2019 are available later this year, as well as when the final file for 2019 and the annual reporting file for 2020 are available next year. These estimates will be further refined when the projections for the first 6 months of 2020 are released in late September.
Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for the First Quarter of 2020
Summary A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first quarter of 2020 shows that an estimated 7,780 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decrease of about 1 percent as compared to 7,850 fatalities that were projected to have occurred in the first quarter of 2019, as shown in Table 1. Preliminary data reported by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) shows that vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the first 3 months of 2020 decreased by about 40.1 billion miles, or about a 5.4 percent decrease. Also shown in Table 1 are the fatality rates per 100 million VMT, by quarter. The fatality rate for the first quarter of 2020 increased to 1.10 fatalities per 100 million VMT, up from the projected rate of 1.05 fatalities per 100 million VMT in the first quarter of 2019. The actual counts for 2019 and 2020 and the ensuing percentage change from 2019 to 2020 will be further revised as the annual reporting FARS files for 2019 are available later this year, as well as when the final file for 2019 and the annual reporting file for 2020 are available next year. These estimates will be further refined when the projections for the first 6 months of 2020 are released in late September.
To examine the effect of national COVID-19 pandemic quarantines and shelter-in-place started in mid-March 2020 on traffic fatalities, VMT, and fatality rate per 100 million VMT, the quarterly data is split into monthly ones for 2019-2020. Table 2 shows an increase of fatality rate per 100 million VMT in March 2020 despite a 10-percent drop in traffic fatalities as compared to March 2019.
Figure 1 shows the historical trend of the percentage change every quarter from the same quarter in the previous year, going back to 1978. NHTSA has fatality data going back to 1975, and the shading in the chart depicts the years during which there were significant number of consecutive quarters with increases/declines as compared to the corresponding quarters of the previous years. The declines during the early 1980s and 1990s lasted 11 consecutive quarters, while the most recent decline occurred over 17 consecutive quarters ending in the second quarter of 2010. Also, more recently, a significant increase in fatalities occurred over 10 consecutive quarters ending after the first quarter of 2017.
Discussion
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is continuing to gather and finalize data on crash fatalities for 2018 and 2019 using information from police crash reports and other sources. It is too soon to speculate on the contributing factors or potential implications of any changes in deaths on our roadways. The final file for 2018 as well as the annual report file for 2019 will be available in late fall of 2020 which usually results in the revision of fatality totals and the ensuing rates and percentage changes. NHTSA has already reported that fatalities increased in 2018 compared to 2017 in the following categories: large-truck occupants, pedestrians, and pedal cyclists (2018 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview, Report No. DOT HS 812 826).
From 2012 to 2014, since recording a significant increase of 11.8 percent during the first quarter of 2012, the magnitude of the increases steadily declined during each subsequent quarter. Fatalities are reported to have increased by about 4.7 percent in the second quarter and by about 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2012. Subsequently, beginning with the fourth quarter of 2012, fatalities have declined in 7 out of 8 quarters (2013 Q4 was a slight increase) until the 4.9-percent increase reported for the fourth quarter of 2014. Fatalities increased 10 consecutive quarters beginning with the fourth quarter of 2014, until the 1.1-percent decline seen in the second quarter of 2017.
The second quarter of 2019 represents the seventh consecutive quarter with year-to-year decreases in fatalities since the fourth quarter of 2017. The fourth quarter of 2019 represents the eleventh consecutive quarter with year-to-year decreases in fatality rate since the second quarter of 2017.
Data
The data used in this analysis comes from several sources: NHTSA’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), FastFARS (FF), and Monthly Fatality Counts (MFC); and from FHWA’s VMT estimates. FARS is a census of fatal traffic crashes in the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. To be included in FARS, a crash must involve a motor vehicle traveling on a trafficway and must result in the death of at least one person (occupant of a vehicle or a nonoccupant) within 30 days of the crash. FARS final files from January 2003 to December 2017 and FARS Annual Report file in 2018 are used. The FF program is designed as an Early Fatality Notification System to capture fatality counts from States more rapidly and in real time. It aims to provide near-real-time notification of fatality counts from all jurisdictions reporting to FARS.
The MFC data provides monthly fatality counts by State through sources that are independent from the FastFARS or FARS systems. MFCs from January 2003 up to April 2020 are used. MFCs are reported mid-month for all prior months of the year. In order to estimate the traffic fatality counts for 2020, time series cross-section regression (TSCSR) was applied to analyze the data with both cross-sectional values (by NHTSA Region) and time series (by month), to model the relationship among FARS, MFC, and FF, the details of which are available in a Research Note (Statistical Methodology to Make Early Estimates of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities, Report No. DOT HS 811 123). The methodology used to generate the estimates for 2020 is the same as the one used by NHTSA to project the decrease in the fatalities for the whole of 2019 (Early Estimates of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2019, Report No. DOT HS 812 946).